Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,085$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,068.8}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,068.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $75$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(4.61 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 32.5)}}\) (asimptote \(86.2\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $589$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $21,520$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(950 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,086.2}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 48.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26,086.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,653$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(116 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,019.9}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,019.9\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,862$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,783$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,544.8}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,544.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $210$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(22.9 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{216.5}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(216.5\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,541$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,051$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(340 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,500.1}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,500.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $218$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(9.81 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{290.9}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 33.3)}}\) (asimptote \(290.9\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,833$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,509$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(962 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,789.9}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,789.9\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $460$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(51.5 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{457.1}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 27.3)}}\) (asimptote \(457.1\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,125$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,798$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(314 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.2}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.2\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.91 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.6}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.6\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $99$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,032$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(3.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51,145.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(51,145.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $7,703$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(402 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,893.5}{1 + 10^{-0.075 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,893.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,437$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $178,685$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(7.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,891.6}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(189,891.6\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,583$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,637.7}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,637.7\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $150,210$ on 2020-05-01
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $207,428$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.13 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204,245.4}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(204,245.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,236$ on 2020-05-01
Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,007.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(28,007.3\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $100,943$ on 2020-05-01
